Russia’s Wagner forces in Belarus pose no threat to Poland, Ukraine: analysis
Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries currently stationed in Belarus pose no military threat to Poland or Ukraine, unless they are re-equipped with mechanised hardware, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank.
Wagner Group in Belarus. Photo: PAP/EPA/ARKADY BUDNITSKY
The ISW made the assessment in its latest report on the war in Ukraine, published on Sunday night, Polish state news agency PAP reported.
“There is no indication that Wagner fighters in Belarus have the heavy weaponry necessary to mount a serious offensive against Ukraine or Poland without significant rearmament,” the US experts wrote.
The ISW noted that under the agreement between Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Wagner financier Yevgheny Prigozhin, ending Wagner’s armed rebellion against the Russian military command in late June, Wagner fighters had been obliged to surrender heavy weapons to the Ministry of Defence in Moscow.
Satellite imagery of Wagner’s main Belarus base in Tsel, Asipovichy, collected on July 23, suggests that the vehicles currently parked in and around the camp’s vehicle storage area are “primarily hundreds of cars, small trucks, and approximately 35 semi-trailers,” the US think tank wrote.
The ISW assessed: “Wagner forces in Belarus pose no military threat to Poland or Ukraine, for that matter, until and unless they are re-equipped with mechanised equipment.”
The US experts added that Wagner fighters “pose no meaningful threat to NATO even then.”
The possible relocation of Wagner fighters to Belarus, under the Putin-Lukashenko-Prigozhin deal, was first reported by Russian independent media outlets in late June, the PAP news agency reported.
The Wagner mercenaries, numbering some 8,000 fighters, were expected to be stationed at a former military base near Osipovichi in the eastern Mogilev region.
On July 13, the US Department of Defense stated that Russia’s Wagner mercenary troops were no longer taking part in combat operations in Ukraine in “any significant capacity,” following their aborted mutiny in late June.
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, launching the largest military campaign in Europe since World War II.
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