Is PiS benefitting from the „Trump effect”?
A new survey from CBOS shows that while KO (Civic Coalition) is still at the top of the opinion polls, Law and Justice (PiS) has been gaining ground since the US elections.
Trump and Duda at a meeting in Warsaw in 2017. Photo: Wiki/CC/Office of the President/Krzysztof Sitkowski
A new survey carried out by CBOS reveals new (at least short-term) political trends in Poland. Law and Justice (PiS) appears to be gaining popularity thanks to Trump’s victory. Are they „populist brothers in arms”?
According to the poll, Civic Coalition (KO) (still) leads with 32% support, closely followed by the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party at 31%. Other parties who would enter the Sejm on the basis of these results in a general election include the hard right Konfederacja with 13%, Trzecia Droga (“Third Way” – a coalition of Polska 2050 and PSL) with 7%, and Lewica (The Left) with 6%.
CBOS analysed the in some detail the rise in Law and Justice’s support – an increase of 6 percentage points, from 25% to 31%. CBOS analysts suggest that the increase in support for PiS may be linked to unexpected victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election. Law and Justice leaders, most conspicuously President Duda, have spoken about Trump as an ally so Trump’s victory to an extent is their victory too.
The analysts continued that the “Trump effect” appears to have motivated previous PiS supporters to come back from “undecided” declarations to explicit support – rather than having convinced voters of other parties to change sides.
The survey also recorded a notable increase in voter turnout intentions – an issue deemed critical in several analyses of the US elections and recent analyses of populism. “How populists get disaffected voters to the voting booth”, as it were.
86% of respondents now say they would participate in the next elections, up 4 percentage points from earlier in the month. 8% of respondents said they would not vote – a decrease of 3 percentage points from the previous survey.
Source: PAP, CBOS
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